The chances of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who leads the Liberal Party, beating the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre in next week’s snap election have reached a new high, betting odds indicate.
Newsweek previously contacted the Liberal and Conservative Parties for comment by website form.
Why It Matters
Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, won a leadership election in March and called a snap election after nine days in office. His predecessor, Justin Trudeau, had announced in January that he was resigning as Canada’s prime minister.
Since returning to office, U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25 percent tariff on Canadian imports and a 10 percent duty on Canadian energy imports, escalating concerns about a trade war between the two countries. He has also threatened to annex the U.S.’s northern neighbor.
While Poilievre was previously the favorite to become Canada’s next prime minister, Trump’s policies and rhetoric have contributed to a partisan realignment, and the Liberal Party has seen its polling surge.
Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP
What To Know
On Friday, advance polls opened, and 7.3 million Canadians have since cast their ballots, according to Elections Canada, which oversees the country’s federal elections. The organization said this was a new record for early voter turnout.
In Canada, votes are not cast for the prime minister directly. Instead, the leader of the party that wins the most seats traditionally becomes the head of government.
According to prediction market Polymarket, Carney has an 80.5 percent chance of remaining prime minister after the election, while Poilievre has a 19.6 percent chance of assuming the role.
On Sunday, Polymarket predicted that Carney had a 77 percent chance of holding the office after the election to Poilievre’s 23 percent possibility, showing Carney’s odds have increased in recent days.
Other polls have also supported a Carney victory. A Leger survey of 3,005 people from April 11 to 14 found that 43 percent would vote for the Liberal Party compared to 38 percent who would vote for the Conservative Party.
The poll, conducted for National Post and Journal Montreal, had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.79 percent.
According to polls aggregated by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Carney has a 5-point lead over Poilievre.
What People Are Saying
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in the final campaign debate in Montreal on Thursday: “We are facing the biggest crisis of our lifetimes. Donald Trump is trying to fundamentally change the world economy. What he’s trying to do to Canada—he’s trying to break us, so the U.S. can own us.”
Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, said: “The Liberal government has weakened our economy with anti-energy laws, red tape and high taxes that have driven $500 billion out of our country into the United States. … That weakness threatens our ability to stand up for ourselves.”
What Happens Next
Canada’s snap election is scheduled for April 28.
