2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Manning No Longer Favored To Be Top Pick

This time of year, the futures markets for the top awards in college football and the first pick in the following year’s NFL Draft are typically pretty stagnant.

Less than two weeks into August, the 2025 Heisman Trophy markets have been open for months, and “Number 1 pick in 2026 NFL Draft” has also been available to bettors since the 2025 Draft wrapped up in late April.

Plenty happens at each team’s fall camp, but we rarely see any developments outside of major injuries moving the needle in the betting markets.

Without further ado, let’s talk about Archie Manning, Arch Manning and the odds to be the first player taken in the 2026 NFL Draft.

And if this doesn’t interest/excite you, the good news is that Week 0 the 2025 college football season is just 15 days away.

In a lengthy, ust-read Texas Monthly feature on Arch by the magazine’s S. C. Gwynne, Archie was quoted as saying, when asked about the possibility of Arch entering the 2026 NFL Draft, “Arch isn’t going to do that. He’ll be at Texas.”

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Betting Odds

Below are the latest odds, as of August 8, at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and bet365.

There are a clear top five candidates to go No. 1 overall next year: Manning, LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State QB Drew Allar, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik and South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers.

Nussmeier has taken over as the clear favorite at three of the four sportsbooks, and the odds on Allar, Klubnik and Sellers all vary significantly from book to book.

Has Arch Manning Ruled Out Entering ’26 NFL Draft?

In a word, no.

Since Gwynne’s piece went live late this week, Arch Manning has gone from the consensus favorite in this market to the back of the pack among the top five contenders entering the 2025 season.

The details of the context of what Archie said are worth unpacking, though.

In Gwynne’s piece, the author wrote before quoting Archie, “His grandfather says he hasn’t discussed it with Arch, but he knows his grandson.”

While it’s hard to imagine that Archie doesn’t have a good idea of what his grandson’s plans are, it’s also impossible to overstate the importance of the fact that Archie’s comments

• A) came from Archie, not Arch
• B) reflect the former Saints star’s own thoughts on his grandson’s plans — not, you know, his grandson’s actual intentions.

While it’s certainly possible Arch has indeed decided he’ll be back in Austin in 2026, no matter how this fall goes, and his grandfather just let the cat out of the bag, the odds movement over the past 24 hours strikes me a significant overreaction.

While Arch certainly is in a position to spend an extra year in college even if he plays well enough to be the top pick next April, it’s too early to be certain that will happen.

Basing a heavy investment off of how a 21-year-old might react to a potentially great season is (obviously) risky, but right now, Manning is well worth a sprinkle at +950 to go No. 1 in next year’s NFL Draft.

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Analysis, Best Bets

With the actual football season still two weeks away from A) kicking off and B) giving us better things to talk about than how much stock we should put in the comments of a famous player’s famous grandfather, let’s briefly break down the other candidates to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

We’ll also mention the QBs these players called to mind for former scout and current NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah in a series he published earlier this summer.

The experience and impressive numbers that Garrett Nussmeier boasts in the toughest conference in America give him a high floor, which makes him the safest bet right now.

On the other end of that spectrum, if we’re going by physical tools and upside, the 6-foot-5 Allar — whose frame and arm strength have drawn comparisons to Joe Flacco — and 6-foot-3 dual-threat Sellers probably boast the highest ceilings of the four players with the shortest current odds.

While Jeremiah mentioned Flacco as Allar’s player comp, he likened Sellers to Daunte Culpepper. Jeremiah also noted elements of Sellers’ game that have reminded him of Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Allen.

Jeremiah said that he sees Klubnik as a smaller Ryan Tannehill.

Last but not least, Jeremiah listed Andy Dalton, Brock Purdy and Tony Romo as three players that Nussmeier resembles.

For now, with a whole season of football yet to get underway, I would recommend either taking Manning at his current longshot odds or staying away.

It’s just too difficult to guess how Nussmeier, Allar, Sellers and Klubnik will help or hurt their draft stock over the next few months, and it also doesn’t help that we have no idea who will have the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

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