Democrats’ Chances of Winning Thom Tillis’ North Carolina Senate Seat

Democrats have a slightly increased chance of winning Thom Tillis’ North Carolina Senate seat after he announced his intention to step down, according to an analyst.

According to analysis in the Cook Political Report newsletter, Republican Tillis announcing his intention to not run for the Senate seat again in 2026 makes the state a “top pickup opportunity” for the Democrats.

Why It Matters

There are currently 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats in the Senate. In November 2026, 33 of the chamber’s 100 seats will be contested.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., returns to his office as senators arrive for votes and policy meetings, at the Capitol in Washington, June 17, 2025.

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File

North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democratic candidate in a presidential election since 2008, but Democrats have won in other races in recent cycles.

While only a few seats are seen as potential flip opportunities for the Democrats, any shift in the makeup of the chamber could affect the course of legislation they scrutinize.

What To Know

Tillis, who voted against President Donald Trump‘s “Big Beautiful” spending bill announced on Sunday that he will not seek reelection as his term in office ends in January 2027. His announcement followed a clash with Trump over the bill, which he said could be “devastating to North Carolina” because of proposed Medicaid changes. Trump in response had threatened to support primary challengers against Tillis.

The Cook Report previously said that the race leaned Republican. Now it has adjusted its analysis and described it as a toss-up state, meaning it could go either way.

Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is to decide whether he will run for the seat, according to reports, while former Democratic Representative Wiley Nickel is running for the seat. No polls have been released since Tillis said he would not stand again but a previous poll suggested Cooper could beat Tillis.

Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump or Michael Whatley, the head of the Republican National Committee and the former chair of the North Carolina GOP, could also run for the Republicans, according to Politico.

What People Are Saying

Richard Johnson, a senior lecturer in U.S. politics and policy at Queen Mary University of London in the U.K, told Newsweek the seat was “eminently possible as a Democratic pickup.”

“Democrats have polled at least 47 percent in all of the recent major statewide contests (president, Senate, governor),” he said. “Democrats have now won the gubernatorial election three times in a row.”

In the Cook Political Report, analyst Jessica Taylor wrote: “The surprise move from Tillis moves this race into the toss-up category and officially makes the Tar Heel State Democrat’s top pickup opportunity.”

In his statement, Tillis said: “In Washington over the last few years, it’s become increasingly evident that leaders who are willing to embrace bipartisanship, compromise, and demonstrate independent thinking are becoming an endangered species. Sometimes those bipartisan initiatives got me into trouble with my own party, but I wouldn’t have changed a single one.”