Republican New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli received a potentially good sign about his favorability in a new poll of Garden State voters days ahead of the primary election.
Newsweek has contacted Ciattarelli’s and Representative Mikie Sherrill’s campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
New Jersey voters are set to head to the polls next Tuesday to pick party nominees for the gubernatorial race scheduled for November. The competitiveness of the election could hinge on which candidates prevail in the primaries, and the race has major implications for both parties.
The election may indicate whether Democrats are winning back key voter groups that shifted right in the 2024 presidential race—such as young adults and Latinos—or whether Republicans can continue winning those groups even though President Donald Trump‘s approval has dropped since January.
What To Know
A new poll conducted by SurveyUSA found that Ciattarelli, who is viewed as a strong favorite to win the GOP nomination next week, is viewed favorably by a similar percentage of New Jersey voters as Sherrill, the Democrat who has held a narrow but consistent lead in primary election polls. However, Sherrill is viewed unfavorably by a smaller percent of voters.
The poll found that 40 percent of voters viewed Ciattarelli favorably, while 41 percent viewed Sherrill favorably. Meanwhile, 36 percent viewed Ciattarelli unfavorably, while 29 percent viewed Sherrill unfavorably.
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Twenty-five percent of respondents were unfamiliar with Ciattarelli, while 30 percent were unfamiliar with Sherrill. The poll surveyed 576 likely voters from May 28 to 30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.
Ciattarelli was the GOP’s nominee in the 2021 gubernatorial race, when he came close to unseating Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, losing by about 3 percentage points. Independent polling on the general election hasn’t been released, but Republicans are hoping to build on the increased support Trump saw in the state in November.
While Joe Biden won the state easily in 2020, securing victory by 16 percentage points, Democratic support collapsed in the state last year. Then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by only 6 points—the closet margin since 2004.
Shifts in heavily Latino areas in the north of the state, as well as eroding Democratic support in South Jersey, contributed to the shift.
The latest head-to-head poll of the Democratic primary showed Sherrill leading the Democratic side with 28 percent of the vote, followed by Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and Representative Josh Gottheimer each at 11 percent. Emerson College conducted the poll between May 11 and 13 among 386 likely voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill’s campaign manager, Alex Ball, told Newsweek in May: “New Jersey saw in the debate why Mikie Sherrill continues to lead in every poll: her lifelong commitment to service, strong record getting big things done and her ability to beat Trump Republicans at every turn. Republicans are afraid to go up against Mikie in November because she knows how to win and then deliver for New Jerseyans.”
Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli said on Fox & Friends First on Tuesday: “We’re in a very commanding position in the primary. We’re not taking anything for granted. We’ll finish strong over the last week; early voting does start today. We’ll be up and down the state once again delivering our message that there’s only one Republican who can win in November, and that’s why I’m honored to have President Trump’s complete and total endorsement. I really am. Having his faith, trust and confidence. He knows New Jersey is in play.”
What Happens Next
After the June 10 primary, voters are set to head to the polls for the general election on November 4. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as leaning Democrat—meaning it is “considered competitive,” but the Democrats have “an advantage.”
