The first storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season could form as early as Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which reports that a low-pressure system south of Mexico is likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, Alvin.
Why It Matters
The 2024 hurricane season resulted in substantial losses, with storms impacting the Gulf and Caribbean regions.
Major storms like Hurricane Beryl struck the Caribbean and Mexico, and later storms, including Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, caused fatalities and economic losses estimated at $78.7 billion and $34.3 billion, respectively, according to the BBC, citing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
What To Know
“Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 [miles per hour],” the NHC said in a Wednesday morning update.
The tropical rainstorm is expected to continue developing today, potentially reaching tropical depression or tropical storm status as it moves northwest. As it tracks farther over the Pacific later this week, it may intensify into a hurricane, forecasters at AccuWeather said.
AccuWeather
However, by the weekend, the system is likely to weaken as it approaches Mexico, encountering cooler waters and stronger wind shear. Despite this, it could still deliver locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along parts of Mexico’s west-central coast from late week into the weekend, according to AccuWeather.
A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 38 mph or less, according to the NHC. In contrast, a tropical storm features sustained winds ranging from 39 to 73 mph.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15. It runs through November 30.
What People Are Saying
Fox Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said: “That’s usually how things work for the [Eastern Pacific]. You know, our water temperatures cool significantly off of Baja. This will generally be indirect impacts because, although this is tracking towards Baja and also the Pacific coast of Mexico, it will no longer be a tropical system at that point because the water temperature is significantly cooler.”
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek: “Both the Atlantic and East Pacific name lists rotate every 6 years. Storms with major land impacts are ‘retired.’ A meeting every year of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) determines which names from the previous year should be retired. Storm list names are maintained and updated by the WMO.”
What Happens Next
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes in the eastern Pacific for 2025. In comparison, the historical averages are 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes.
